Ahmed Shabib to Ugarit: Syria is at the heart of the international equation.. and the future of the relationship between Turkey and the Syrian government is unclear

Many people make a mistake when they link the Syrian crisis to the beginning of the revolutionary movement in March 2011, the Syrian crisis is the result of wrong and accumulated internal and external policies.

On the domestic front, economic and developmental failure, underdevelopment in education, suppression of freedoms, dominance of the security services over citizens, and widespread corruption all contributed to citizens’ lack of hope for reform.

Politically, the doors were closed in the face of parties and political activity, and the Baath Party and its allies monopolized political work, and political life was suspended in favor of the security services and their needs. At the regional level, Syria lost its position after placing itself under the wing of the Iranian regime, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Arab Republic of Egypt returned to supporting al-Qaeda terrorism and facilitating the passage of criminals to Iraq. Fighting the Americans and distracting them from entering Syria after the American army is on its borders.

And the Syrian relations with the West and the Arab countries worsened after Syria abandoned the balance in managing the Lebanese file, the last point of which was the assassination of the martyr Rafik Hariri. In 2011, the explosion came as a result of the accumulation of failure and wrong and destructive policies.

The year 2022 brought nothing but failed rounds of the Constitutional Committee and more pressure on the Syrians at home as a result of the Caesar Act. This pressure and the destitution that the Syrians suffer from inside makes us feel burning and pain, and prompts us to work more and pressure by all possible political means in order to achieve a political transition. A few days ago, the US administration adopted the Anti-Narcotics Law, which will have its effects, and unfortunately the oppressed Syrian citizen will pay the price for that.

Where is Syria in the international equation with talk about changing balances, alliances and international circumstances by virtue of the events taking place in the world?

Today, Syria is at the heart of the international equation, and everything that is said about the decline of the Syrian file on the international agenda is inaccurate. Foreign armies are on the ground to protect the interests of disparate countries, but the conditions for a political solution have not matured. The alliances are still the same, and some analysts expected Syria to be affected by the Russian war on Ukraine, but this war did not show any effect on the Syrian file except by cutting off any possibility of an American-Russian agreement in the near future.

The Syrian economy has collapsed dramatically in the year 2022, and the citizen is living in a difficult situation in very harsh conditions.. What are the reasons for this and do you think there are solutions to save the economy?

Basically, the Syrian economic system was suffering from underdevelopment and corruption, and the authority had to build a modern economic system that gives confidence to capital and encourages all sectors affected by the economy, and this did not happen. There is no solution to save the economy except by achieving the political solution, which is the condition for reconstruction, and this requires the presence of rational governance and a clear economic approach in order to renaissance the economy and legalize it in accordance with the concepts of the modern market and fight corruption and give confidence to the donor or investor and the capital.

In conjunction with the talk about the Syrian solution.. there are efforts for rapprochement between the government of Damascus and Turkey.. How do you read this development.. and can it contribute to resolving the crisis?

We have heard many statements from Turkish officials about possible political meetings between the regime and the Turks. The completion of these meetings, first, depends on the outcomes of the security dialogues between the two countries. Yesterday, the defense ministers and chiefs of intelligence met under Russian auspices, on the one hand, and secondly, dependent on what the West will offer Turkey on the other hand, regarding their security demands inside Syria. Therefore, we are facing an incomplete picture, and it is difficult to deduce where it will reach and its repercussions on the Syrian file.

Can we witness once again the emergence of the terrorist organization ISIS in Syria, with talk of increasing its activity in the north, east and desert?

ISIS is an idea more than an organization and eradicating ISIS forever by establishing a democratic government that fights them, dries up their sources of funding, exposes their ideology, and immunizes society from such criminal ideas. I believe that the international coalition should think more about expanding its local partnerships to eliminate this organization.

How do you see the future of Idlib, As-Suwayda, and the east of the Euphrates during the year 2023?

There is no future for any Syrian region except after the completion of the political transition and the formation of an inclusive, credible and non-sectarian government that undertakes to solve all problems and in all regions, because the current situation is the reason for the existence of these divisions and dispersion.

What are your expectations for 2023?

It is difficult to predict what the next year will bring, but The opposition must reorganize itself, get closer to the Syrians, listen to them, reflect their demands, help secure their needs, alleviate their suffering, and send clear political messages that unite the people, and I hope that the new year will bring relief, achieve the aspirations of the Syrians, and end their tragedy.